A paper in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine presents results from a WHO Europe study that suggest that COVID-19 vaccines saved at least 1.6 million lives in Europe by March 2023. The retrospective surveillance study uses weekly data on COVID-19 mortality and infection, COVID-19 vaccination uptake, and SARS-CoV-2 virus characterisations by lineage from The European Surveillance System and vaccine effectiveness data from the literature. During the period considered, most lives saved by COVID-19 vaccination were in “older adults” by first booster dose and during the Omicron period. This highlights the importance of ensuring that the “most at-risk individuals” have up-to-date vaccination.
COVID-19 and vaccines
From the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to March 2023, 2.2 million COVID-19 deaths were reported to WHO Europe from the 54 countries, areas, and territories (CAT) in the Region. However, the “true number” of deaths linked directly or indirectly to COVID-19 is believed to be “even greater”. Throughout the pandemic, “disproportionately higher mortality rates” are identified in older age groups, with a global review suggesting that persons aged 60 years or older accounted for “over 80%” of all COVID-19 fatalities.
COVID-19 vaccines were introduced in late 2020, and “have been shown to be safe and highly effective” in protecting against severe COVID-19 infection. By March 2023, 69% of people aged 60 years or older in 49 CAT in the Region were reported to have received at least three doses of a vaccine.
The study
The researchers aimed to estimate the number of lives saved by COVID-19 vaccination in adults aged 25 years or older in the WHO European Region from the beginning of COVID-19 vaccine introduction to March 2023; this was a period of 2.5 years. Results were stratified by age group, predominant circulating VOC, and vaccination dose. The analysis also considered waning protection and previous infection.
The authors found that, over nearly 2.5 years, COVID-19 vaccination programmes across 34 CAT in the Region reduced COVID-19 mortality by “an estimated 59%, saving approximately 1.6 million lives”. In those 34 CAT, the number of lives saved ranged from 542 to 449,241. This is consistent with other studies, including previous research from the team that suggested COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 mortality in Europe by 51% in the first 12 months of the pandemic.
A point that the authors highlight is that during the Omicron period, when infection severity “decreased relative to earlier periods of previous VOC circulation”, the vaccines “still substantially reduced mortality”. Indeed, “most lives (60%)” were saved during the Omicron period.
Another key result is that the “highest impact of vaccination” was in adults aged 60 years or older; 96% of all COVID-19-averted deaths by vaccine in 34 CAT were in this age group, even though only 26% of reported infections in adults occurred in the age group. Furthermore, adults aged 80 years or older accounted for 52% of all lives saved through vaccination, despite only 6% of reported SARS-CoV-2 infections occurring in this group. Booster doses in older age groups “had an important role in saving lives”; the authors found that early introduction of the first booster dose prevented 769,469 deaths in adults aged 60 or older.
Vaccinations save lives
Dr Margaux Meslé, study author from WHO/Europe, commented that the results are “clear”:
“COVID-19 vaccination saves lives. Our findings remind us of the integral role played by vaccines to ensure people return to a semblance of their pre-pandemic lives across the Region, in work and leisure.”
Dr Meslé stated that without the “enormous vaccination effort”, more livelihoods would have been “disrupted” and lives lost. Although “we are now out of the pandemic phase”, SARS-CoV-2 remains a threat in the Region.
“COVID-19 vaccination continues to be important for people who are at high risk of severe outcomes if they get infected.”
WHO is “continuing to monitor SARS-CoV-2 activity” and the effect it is having.
“We urge high-risk individuals to remain alert and follow national COVID-19 vaccine recommendations, and Member States in WHO European Region to continue implementing COVID-19 vaccination, targeting the most vulnerable.”
For more on COVID-19 vaccination and disease management for vulnerable groups, do join us at the Congress in Barcelona this October at the COVID and Beyond Track. Don’t forget to subscribe to our weekly newsletters here.
