A study in The Lancet Global Health estimates the impact that the 100 Days Mission could have had on the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors find that the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) within the 100 Days Mission could have averted around 8.33 million deaths, corresponding to a monetary saving of US$14.35 trillion. Investment in manufacturing and health systems contribute an increase to 11.01 million deaths averted. The researchers comment on the value of the 100 Days Mission but emphasise the importance of “prioritising a more equitable global vaccine distribution”.
In search of greater vaccine benefits
Although COVID-19 vaccines are estimated to have prevented almost 20 million deaths, the authors demand a better understanding of the “further health and economic benefits that could have been achieved” through shorter development times and “improved global equity in pandemic preparedness”. CEPI’s 100 Days Mission was proposed in 2021, establishing the ambition of cutting vaccine development time for new pathogens to 100 days. This about a third of the time taken to deliver the first COVID-19 vaccine.
“The availability of COVID-19 vaccines within 100 days would have substantially changed the pandemic; however, these benefits would be finite without enabling equitable access to vaccine products through system equity.”
Various efforts to encourage global vaccine distribution were “hampered” by inequities, and it is recognised that manufacturing capacity should be “expanded but also diversified” to “promote self-sufficiency and regional resilience”. Furthermore, supply chains and infrastructure must be scaled to enable the delivery of vaccines that rely on cold-chain infrastructure.
The study
The searchers hoped to quantify the potential impact of the 100 Days Mission by retrospectively estimating the effect it would have had on the COVID-19 pandemic, thus offering evidence to support decision making around future investments in research and development capabilities. They also aimed to quantify the impact of “additional investments”.
The analyses use an extended version of a previously published compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered transmission model of COVID-19 vaccination with an explicit healthcare pathway. The vaccination pathway was expanded to include booster vaccination alongside waning efficacy, capturing the “restoration of immunity” through booster doses. The new vaccination pathway was parameterised to match platform-specific vaccine efficacy data and the duration of protection.
The authors modelled the impact of the 100 Days Mission by simulating a counterfactual scenario where the global vaccination campaign began on 20th April 2020, 100 days after the publication of the full SARS-CoV-2 genome. This scenario assumes that vaccinations in each country took the same roll-out process, but 232 days earlier. Two additional scenarios reflected “increased investment” in research and delivery infrastructure.
The Manufacturing scenario removed supply constraints, enabling the rollout of vaccination on 20th April 2020 in every country, without stockouts. The infrastructure-equity scenario enhanced both national health systems and global distribution networks so that all countries achieved 40% vaccine coverage in the first year and 40% booster coverage in the second year.
To account for the relaxing of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), the authors simulated three scenarios for NPI relaxation speeds as vaccination coverage improved. The History scenario assumed no changes, whereas the Target and Economic scenarios assumed earlier relaxing; the Target scenario lifted all restrictions over two months after reaching more than 80% adult coverage in high-income countries or more than 80% coverage in those older than 60 in other countries. The Economic scenario lifted NPIs more gradually after reaching the over-60 target, prioritising the reopening of schools.
Study findings
The results suggest that the 100 Days Mission could have averted an additional 8.33 million deaths due to COVID-19 by the end of 2021 when combined with the History NPI lifting scenario. In this scenario, an estimated 26.72 million severe cases of COVID-19 requiring hospitalisation and 1/44 billion infections would have been averted. Most of these averted deaths, hospitalisations, and infections would have occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
The estimated VSLs (value of a statistical life) that could have been saved by the 100 Days Mission through the History scenario is US$22.61 trillion globally. As VSLs are “significantly higher” in HICs, 57% of the global value of statistical life averted occurred in HICs, even though most deaths would have been averted in LMICs. To estimate the monetary values associated with lives saved the authors multiplied the number of lives saved by the country-specific monetary VSL and by the value of a statistical life-year (VSLY).
“Increased investment in both global manufacturing and health systems infrastructure further increases the number of deaths that could be averted and the associated health-economic savings.”
In the 100 Days Mission with both manufacturing and health systems investments, an estimated 11.01 million deaths could have been averted and a value of $31.29 trillion in statistical lives saved. However, the authors describe this scenario as “unlikely”. In all scenarios involving the relaxing of NPIs thanks to earlier availability of vaccines, additional lives would have been saved.
In the Target NPI lifting scenario, an estimated 5.76 million deaths (100 Days Mission alone) to 9.20 million deaths (100 Days Mission with both manufacturing and infrastructure investments) could have been averted. In these scenarios, 12,600 and 23,900 fewer days of NPIs would have been implemented globally: 70 days and 133 days on average per country. Under the Economic scenario there were “similar trade-offs between public health and economic gains”. The public health and health economic outcomes would be greater than under the Target scenario, but still lower than the History scenarios.
Substantial benefits
“Earlier access to COVID-19 vaccines could have had substantial benefits.”
Most of the estimated averted deaths would have been concentrated in LMICs, but this demands investments in vaccine research, supported by “improvements to manufacturing and health system infrastructures”. With these investments, the authors estimate that 11 million deaths could have been prevented globally.
Although NPIs were effective at reducing transmission they incurred “significant economic and societal costs”, including consequences for education. Therefore, a major benefit of earlier access to vaccination is the reduction in school closures; in the Economic scenario, prioritising school opening could have averted 1,120 weeks of full school closures and 2,490 of partial school closures. This represents an average of 6 weeks of fully open schools and 14 weeks of partly open schools per country.
“Reopening schools and relaxing NPIs safely will crucially require scaling up both vaccine delivery infrastructure and manufacturing. Without addressing both aspects, advancements in vaccine development speed might not translate into equitable benefits globally.”
The results emphasise the importance of investments in support of the 100 Days Mission in controlling a future potential pandemic, with benefits for both health and economy.
“The 100 Days Mission is ambitious, requiring global innovation through creating vaccine libraries, clinical trial networks, accelerated immune response marker identification, rapid vaccine manufacturing, and strengthened global disease surveillance.”
CEO of CEPI, Dr Richard Hatchett, hopes that this research will encourage global commitment to the 100 Days Mission.
“This work shows in the starkest terms why the world needs to be prepared to move faster and more equitably when novel pandemic disease threats emerge. Investing in preparedness now to make the 100 Days Mission possible for future incipient pandemics will save millions upon millions of lives and protect the global economy against catastrophic losses.”
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