In October 2022 the health analytics specialist Airfinity predicted that the COVID-19 vaccine market will generate $60 billion for this year, despite a drop in sales. Airfinity suggests that this will come at a cost for buyers, who will face an increase in price per dose.
Modelling for 2023 predicts that the number of doses sold will “fall” to 1.6 billion doses. This is a further drop from 5.7 billion in 2021 to roughly 3 billion in 2022. However, despite this apparent decrease in sales, companies are predicted to experience only a 22% decrease in revenue. This is due to higher prices. The analysis by Airfinity shows a doubling in price from 2021 to 2023.
Thanks to Airfinity’s insights it seems that Pfizer and Moderna will “maintain dominance of the market” with a 94% market share in 2023. For Pfizer/BioNTech 2021 saw a revenue of $37 billion, which has fallen to $32 billion this year. Moderna, on the other hand, is set to see sales up this year from $17 billion in 2021 to $21 billion. Next year a drop is predicted to $12 billion.
An increase in prices is expected across the board, but according to Airfinity “mRNA vaccines have gone up the most”. The prices will also vary according to the country purchasing them. Doses of Pfizer/BioNTech will range from $22-$42. Moderna is estimated to be selling doses at a rate of between $32 and $50, but Airfinity suggests that the US is “potentially paying even more”. Other manufacturers, including AstraZeneca and Novavax, are estaimted to be selling shots for $5-$16.
Private market emergence
In the coming year Airfinity expects to see the “emergence of a private market” for these vaccines, largely in the US. Analysis of G7 and EU supply deals demonstrated that “all countries except the US have secured supply” greater than population demand.
Interpreting the data
For Airfinity’s CEO, Rasmus Bech Hansen, the numbers reveal a “persistent and longer-term demand” for the vaccines. Furthermore, it “illustrates that COVID-19 is a continued large health threat and significant disease burden”.
“It’s also a clear sign that the vaccine market has been completely transformed by the pandemic and we can expect continued significant innovation in the space.”
However, Dr Matt Linley, Analytics Director at Airfinity, believes that President Biden’s recent announcement that the “pandemic is over” will push manufacturers to raise the price to “non-pandemic levels”. Although this supports future revenue, the implied costs on national purchases are significant.
“Pfizer and Moderna are continuing to benefit from first to market advantage and will continue to dominate the market for the foreseeable future. The duos’ new variant targeting jabs are set to cement this status. mRNA technology has proven to be the quickest to update for new variants of concern and therefore demand higher prices.”
As we tentatively emerge from pandemic life, with warnings that we must keep running towards the finish line, we will continue to see increases in prices to compete with decreasing demand. To hear more about market trends and COVID-19 vaccines at the World Vaccine Congress in Washington 2023 get your tickets now.