In research from GlobalData in December 2022, 13 of the top 20 pharmaceutical companies saw increases in market capitalisation. According to FiercePharma this is a “snapshot view” of investor confidence but demonstrates that “if there’s an industry that can still thrive through adverse economic conditions, it’s biopharma”.  

After a year of “economic volatility” and “financial uncertainty” the market cap of pharma’s 20 largest companies came to a total of $3.61 trillion at the end of 2022. This is a 5.4% increase on the previous year. Will things continue to look up for the pharma giants? 

Pharma comes out on top 

These updates on the status of the leaders of the pharma world comes in contrast to many other industries. Indeed, FiercePharma notes that “among the 500 companies in the S&P 500 index” there was a “19.4% aggregate drop in market cap”.  

However, this “strong performance” came in spite of the “uncertainty” caused by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which featured measures to control drug prices.  

COVID-19 vaccine losses 

Despite positive overall trends, COVID-19 sales forecasts have seen an average decline, states GlobalData, with a 7% drop in predicted total forecast sales between 2022 and 2028. The greatest decrease is expected to occur in 2025. However, this has had more immediate effects for some of the big vaccine names, such as Moderna, which saw a market cap fall of 33%, and Pfizer, which had a 13% drop.  

Quentin Horgan, Associate Director at GlobalData commented that the large drop was a “result of a decline in nearly all currently marketed prophylactic vaccines”. With more vaccines coming to market combining with an overall decline in usage we will see a “shift away from vaccination as the means to combat COVID-19″, says Horgan.  

“As mass vaccination campaigns wind down or cease as the countries continue to open, this downward trend is likely to continue as the need for vaccines becomes less urgent.”  

Do you agree with Horgan that we are witnessing a “shift away from vaccination”, and what trends do you expect to see in the future? Join us to discuss vaccination strategies and trends for the future at the World Vaccine Congress in Washington this April.